Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev said on Sunday that the Azerbaijani plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, was shot down by Russia, albeit unintentionally.
Aliyev told Azerbaijani state television that the plane was struck from the ground over Russia and rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare. He accused Russia of trying to “cover up” the issue for several days.
Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart on Saturday for what he called a “tragic incident” but stopped short of blaming Moscow.
Putin's apology to President Ilham Aliyev came as allegations mounted that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense systems trying to repel a Ukrainian drone attack near Grozny, the regional capital of Russia's Chechen Republic, where the plane was flying.
Here are some things you should know about the crash that killed 38 of the 67 people on board:
The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 was en route from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted. It crashed while trying to land near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying hundreds of miles east over the Caspian Sea.
PHOTOS: What is known about a plane crash in Kazakhstan that Azerbaijan says was caused by Russia?
The plane landed near the coast, about 2 miles from Aktau. Cell phone footage shared online appeared to show the plane making a steep descent before hitting the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Rescuers took 29 survivors to hospitals.
Kazakh, Azerbaijani and Russian authorities said they were investigating the crash. Initial theories from various officials included the possibility of a bird strike, bad weather and the explosion of an oxygen cylinder on board the aircraft.
Embraer told The Associated Press in a statement that the company “stands ready to assist all relevant authorities.”
Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia's civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia, said on Friday that Ukrainian drones targeted the city as the plane prepared to land in Grozny in thick fog, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.
Yadrov said that after the captain made two unsuccessful attempts to land, he was offered other airports but decided to fly to Aktau.
Later on Friday, senior officials in the U.S. and Azerbaijan issued separate statements suggesting that the plane may have been brought down by weapons fire, echoing statements from aviation experts who said the Russian air defense systems had been deployed in response to a Ukrainian attack blamed for the crash.
Rashan Nabiyev, Azerbaijan's minister of digital development and transport, told Azerbaijani media that “preliminary conclusions from experts indicate external impacts,” as do witness statements.
“The type of weapon used in the collision will be determined during the investigation,” Nabiyev said.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. had seen “some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was shot down by Russian air defense systems,” but declined to elaborate, and referred to an ongoing investigation.
These statements reflected assessments by external aviation experts and increased pressure on Russia.
Some aviation experts said holes visible in the tail section of the plane after the crash suggested it may have been fired upon by Russian air defense systems that were repelling a Ukrainian drone attack.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors airspace and airports worldwide for risk, said analysis of the crashed plane's fragments suggested a 90-99% chance it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its customers that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.”
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company has issued more than 200 warnings about drone strikes and air defense systems in Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
FlightRadar24 said in an online post that the plane experienced “severe GPS interference” that affected flight tracking data and allowed it to monitor the plane's flight path. Russia has extensively used sophisticated jamming devices to deter drone attacks.
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted Thursday that images of the crashed plane's tail showed damage consistent with shrapnel from Russia's Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
It was unclear why the pilots chose to fly over the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land in Russia after the plane was hit, he said, adding that they likely faced restrictions on landing somewhere closer located location and may have thought that the damage was not critical.
In Azerbaijan, the online newspaper Caliber also claimed that the plane had come under fire from a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system and that its systems were also affected by jamming devices while approaching Grozny.
Aliyev said Sunday that the jet was shot down by Russia, albeit unintentionally.
“We can say with absolute certainty that the plane was shot down by Russia. (…) We are not saying it happened intentionally, but it happened,” he told Azerbaijani state television.
Aliyev accused Moscow of trying to “cover up” the matter for several days and said he was “angry and surprised” by the versions of events put forward by Russian officials.
“Unfortunately, in the first three days we heard nothing but insane versions from Russia,” he said.
Aliyev said Azerbaijan had made three demands to Russia in connection with the crash.
“First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Secondly, it must admit its guilt. Third, punish the guilty, hold them criminally responsible and pay compensation to the Azerbaijani state and the injured passengers and crew members,” he said.
Aliyev noted that the first demand had “already been met” when Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to him on Saturday. Putin called the crash a “tragic incident” but stopped short of acknowledging Moscow's responsibility.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media on Sunday that Putin had spoken to Aliyev by phone again, but did not provide details of the conversation.
An official Kremlin statement released on Saturday said air defense systems fired near Grozny airport as the plane “repeatedly” attempted to land there on Wednesday. However, it was not specifically said whether any of them caused the plane to crash.
According to a readout of the call by Aliyev's press office, the Azerbaijani leader told Putin that the plane had been subjected to “physical and technical interference from outside,” although he also stopped short of explicitly blaming Russian air defenses.
Aliyev noted that the plane had several holes in the fuselage and that the occupants suffered injuries “because foreign particles entered the cabin during the flight.”
Azerbaijan marked a nationwide day of mourning on Thursday. National flags were half-staffed, traffic across the country stopped at midday, and sirens sounded from ships and trains.
Both Putin and Aliyev said on Saturday that experts from Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan had begun investigating the incident and were opening investigations in both Grozny and Aktau. Moscow has launched a criminal investigation into the crash.
Aliyev said on Sunday that Azerbaijan was always “in favor of a group of international experts” investigating the matter and was “categorically opposed” to Russia's proposal that the Interstate Aviation Committee, which oversees civil aviation in the Commonwealth of Independent States, investigate the crash rejected”.
“It is no secret that this organization consists mainly of Russian officials and is led by Russian citizens. The factors of objectivity could not be fully guaranteed here,” Aliyev said.